My heading is from a W.B. Yeats poem The Second Coming, but is a reminder of the title of Chinua Achebe’s wonderful novel with its reflections on politics and corruption in colonial Nigeria.
Just when I thought I was in the middle of a carefully considered long term view of what is happening in British politics and government currently, things did fall apart at the centre. As I write, this leaves the British political system in a state of woeful and chaotic confusion. The fundamental reason for this situation was Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s determination to resist all calls for his resignation. These in turn were the end-point of a long series of errors, U-turns, and accusations of sleaze and corruption centred on 10, Downing Street. All this was capped by the almost incredible story of ‘partygate’ and its revelation that both Johnson and other senior members of the Prime Minister’s team at the heart of government had broken the very laws that they were issuing and promoting.
The only surprising thing about the debacle was the sudden implosion of Johnson’s position as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative party. The ostensible trigger was the sudden resignation of two of his senior ministers, Chancellor Rishi Sunak and Health Secretary Sajid Javid. Some commentators attributed the collapse to a sleazy incident involving a Tory Whip, Chris Pincher, which revealed that Johnson had demonstrably failed to heed warnings of the known unsuitability of Pincher for this appointment. Johnson subsequently lied about this and was outed by no less a figure than Sir Simon McDonald (now Baron McDonald of Salford), a former Permanent Secretary at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office when Johnson was Foreign Secretary. Referred to by ‘The Daily Mail’ as the ‘remainiac mandarin’, we might note that McDonald had frequently clashed with his erstwhile Foreign Secretary, and Johnson retaliated as Prime Minister by replacing him. McDonald appeared to wait for the right moment; as the saying goes ‘revenge is a dish best served cold’.
However, the underlying reason for the crucial ministerial and other resignations must surely have been the two significant electoral defeats for the Conservatives in Wakefield and Taunton Deane, which will have frightened the socks off almost all Conservative MPs. Suddenly their whizz-kid Prime Minister was revealed as a vote loser and a toxic asset. These results suggested that in any forthcoming election under Johnson the Tory party could give way to a Labour government, losing a wide range of both so-called Red Wall seats in the North East and Midlands, and what might normally have been regarded as ‘safe’ Tory seats in more prosperous areas of the country. The writing was now on the wall, and Johnson was forced out as leader of the party (but not yet as Prime Minister).
From Hubris to Nemesis – but not yet Catharsis
Let us hope that Johnson both understands and appreciates this kind of development and language. Johnson had stormed to his long-desired capture of Prime Ministerial office by a combination of dirty tricks over the Brexit referendum, and extremely questionable attacks on the position and powers of Parliament. His subsequent electoral victory in January 2019 gave him a substantial majority, allowing him to play fast and loose with several constitutional conventions. Although he was reeled in with adverse judgements on his illegal actions by the High Court and Supreme Court, he continued to push the boundaries of normal political and administrative practice. He was helped in this not only by delays in the implementation of Brexit but by the crisis created by the Covid-19 pandemic. Initially he and his team handled this extremely badly. He was saved from ignominy by the astonishingly rapid development of effective vaccines and heroic efforts by the NHS. But a different kind of ignominy has not yet been fully played out, relating to a substantial number of wasteful and potentially corrupt contracts to suppliers linked to members of and donors to the Conservative party and government. We know already that several billions of pounds of taxpayers’ money have been squandered but we still await a full accounting for this whole series of dubious transactions. This is the theme of sleaze and corruption to which I will return in my next post.
So Johnson has gone – or has he? While the Tory party is now tearing itself apart as it attempts to find a successor who will not be as disastrous as Johnson has proved to be, he still remains as Prime Minister for at least another two months. Given his track record, it is impossible to say with confidence that he will not renege on his pledge to avoid controversial new initiatives or decisions. Moreover, we face the prospect of enduring yet another series of elevations to the House of Lords and other honours which will produce some sort of toxic afterlife in our government institutions.
Two worrying issues arise here. The first is that a new Conservative cabinet looks quite likely to find a number of the same faces in it, committed (as it would seem from declarations from the candidates) to mutually contradictory economic policies, to carrying forward controversial proposals which still remain on the parliamentary timetable. The most notable of these are the bill to renege on the Northern Ireland Protocol as part of the Brexit settlement, and the attack on existing human rights legislation. In addition, the universally scorned policy to resettle would-be asylum seekers in Rwanda in central Africa may well be continued. All of these policies have already attracted accusations that they break both national and international law. (And we are not allowed now to protest about this, or even about the failure to pursue adequate environmental programmes.)
The second concern I have is that both Johnson as outgoing Prime Minister and an incoming ‘new’ Conservative administration will strain every political sinew to avoid accountability for a number of extremely dodgy past actions. Firstly in relation to the handling of the pandemic, the award of questionable contracts, and also such issues as catastrophic failures in our benefits and social care systems, ineffective housing programmes, and even more privatisation and underfunding of our hard-pressed and highly-regarded NHS. So Johnson may be leaving us, but his legacy is likely to poison the water for some time to come. At this point a quotation from Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar may resonate:
“The evil that men do lives after them; The good is oft interrèd with their bones.”
